Football Italia: Season 8 – Acclimatising

Season Eight: Acclimatising…

I think that maybe the wording in the title is doing a disservice to the job that we’re doing this season, remembering that it is our first in Serie A. Our style of play – for some reason currently considered as route one – has had many an ex professional raving about us but, ever the optimist, I think we might be able to give even more!

I look back at some of these results and just wonder how we have managed to pull them off! The double completed against reigning champions Inter in some style, too – just giving up our clean sheet from a lapse late on but stopping the visitors from ever really getting into the box or creating chances. Within a week, we’d then knocked the Old Lady out of the Coppa Italia, holding our nerve in the penalty shootout to send them packing, adding a cup failure to their current league struggles. We then beat Roma, drew with Inter, beat Roma and then demolished Fiorentina – a run of games against teams that a club like this should have no chance against!

We’re fearless, well drilled and absolutely the tightest knit unit going, and that is shown in the table, below.

The best actual defence and the third best expected defence is no mean feat for a side not in the top four, let alone a side predicted to not even be in the top flight at all. Our next five sees us play just two of the top ten as we’ve successfully navigated games against some of the bigger teams prior to that. With no Lazio, Roma or Torino in the top half and relegation a real threat for mid table Genoa, this has certainly been an odd season. But, honestly, I am waiting for the bad run: it’ll come at some point. I know that. What we have got though, is a really strong foundation to work from and quite the cushion back to Juve; I’m not saying its insurmountable, but I am saying that Enzo Maresca has his work cut out to finish above little old Messina!

But, oddly, I think we could be doing better…

This crudely made graph shows the comparison of our goals and expected goals against our league position, with the intention of showing you that many of the top teams – seen by a white line higher up – have scored many more goals than us. Currently, a ratio of 1.53: 0.73 goals scored to goals conceded is great, meaning we’re scoring twice as many as we concede but that isn’t going to cut it eventually if we plan to get up with the big boys.

I think that some of it can come down to my tactical direction…

With two SS(A) behind either a DLF(s) or F9(s), I haven’t quite approached my attacking trio with as much fluidity as I have with the defensive/transitional groupings and I do think that it can make us very one-dimensional at times. Of course, I know our limitations as a newly promoted side and also a side without the riches of some of the teams here and, probably most importantly, I know that this style isn’t really going to see me have a 20-goal striker, who leads the line, dominates crosses and duels or is a fox in the box. Quite the opposite, in fact. My two main scorers start much deeper and spend a portion of their time actually being defensive/transitional players and, what is more, a lot of their ability to get on the ball is determined by the strength of hold up or link play from the deep lying forward, who himself must be able to find space to link phases.

I don’t think that the goals have quite been shared out as well as I anticipated, though:

Interestingly, it is converted striker, Owusu, often maligned and deemed not good enough by myself, who leads the way with scoring and is the only player to be scoring at more than one goal in two appearances. Aside from Vinci, every single other attacker is also underperforming their xG which suggests that, whilst I should be really happy that we’re creating good chances, we’re either not good enough to score them or just unlucky. Some weight must go into either argument but not one I can necessarily prove as we continue our meteoric, and fast paced, rise through the leagues. Zapelli has probably been the biggest disappointment this season, with just four contributions and a host of pretty invisible performances, but, with his win % being the lowest, maybe it’s because I trust him the most against bigger teams and he’s more stifled than the rest of the players.

So I used January to do some temporary fixing…

Salcedo (yes, his name is Eddie and not Eddy but I’ve just realised this) comes in from Southampton on loan. As a striker – an actual striker – I feel that I’m no longer necessarily in short supply. Whilst never the most prolific, with over 300 career games, he’s been around the block a bit and has played in the top tiers of Italy and Portugal but has spent most of his time at Monza, in Serie B. He’s on €54k per week at the Saints, so, even though his contract is expiring, it’s going to take a phenomenal five months to see him being here longer term. Alvaro Montoro is a lad who I’m very excited about and he joins on loan from Velez with an optional future fee of €7m, which is a fair bit more than his actual asking price but I needed to sweeten the deal to get this one through the doors. He’s got a number of attributes that I really want in our style of play and I’m excited that, given his dual nationality, he wouldn’t be an issue to bring in, should I want to.

With eight player now vying for three slots, I’m playing a dangerous game in terms of squad happiness but it’s one I need to do as I look to explore the best variations of my styles. With the core DNA attributes on the left, the more creative elements in the middle and the scoring attributes on the right, I think I’m building some nice options. It’s clear that Owusu is different to the rest, lacking in passing and vision but making up for that in speed off the mark and technical ability, as well as being a strong finisher. Vinci, as pretty much all of my forwards – through height or heading ability – is poor in the air but can carry the ball well. Montoro has a great ability to dribble, pass and finish – the ultimate attacking trifecta and I feel that it will somewhat make up for his lack of height, pace (although he’s quick off the mark just not fast over longer distances) and strength. I worry that his Determination is below par, too and he’s not got the best personality.

I think, looking at the harmonic mean of their attributes, and then including youth players into that (using harmonic mean rather than mean to establish more punishment for a lower attribute), I’ve got some areas where I need to improve this attacking group but, thankfully, there are some strong players coming through. A good proportion of my promising youngsters are currently accessing first team football at one of my three feeder clubs:

It’s little surprise that, with sixty contributions between two players, Trapani are running away with Serie D so, if Palmese do not come up to the playable league, I’ll need to find another Serie D level club. Out in Croatia, my most promising youngsters are firing relegation candidates Rudes into Europe; they sit in third, eleven points ahead of reigning champions Dinamo Zagreb under the watchful eye of Dario Srna.

Some of these players, of course, won’t make it, but this exposure will certainly help raise their value to keep them in the professional game longer.

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Lots and lots to enjoy and look forward to!

Forza Biancoscudati!