Brescia Calcio – Season 4, Part 5
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RECAP
We ended the last update having crashed out of the Champions League at the hands of RB Salzburg and 6 points adrift of the final European Qualification spot in Serie A. Having struggled to compete across multiple competition, we now have just the league to focus on.
Can we do it?
Finishing the season:
March & April
So, after ending the previous post talking about getting my most creative players on the pitch to create chances for our “deadly” strikers, it’ll come as zero surprise that the FM Gods openly mocked me! “How DARE you take a 3 month break from the game! We’ll show you”!
A frustrating 0-0 draw with Cagliari (18 shots, 2.17 xG) was followed by a heartbreaking 0-1 loss to Roma, conceding in the 85th minute. Our European aspirations were fading fast.
The glimmers of hope came against Frosinone when finding ourselves 0-2 down and midfielder Tomas Handel forced off with injury, a midfield reshuffle breathed new life into the team:
- DM converted to a Ball Winning Midfielder
- B2B transitioned to a Mezzala (Support)
- Van de Beek unleashed as an Advanced Playmaker (Attack)
The changes paid off, with Van de Beek scoring twice and assisting Bianchi for a thrilling 3-2 comeback victory. The team once again had a spring in their step!
Hopes were high for the rivalry match against Atalanta, now under Xabi Alonso’s guidance. Despite dominating play, a deflected 85th-minute strike crushed our spirits once again. The return of top scorer Feiertag provided some consolation but it was still a gutting result which saw them overtake us in the table.
But the team’s fortunes were about to turn:
- Bianchi found his form, netting a hat-trick in a 3-1 win over Lecce
- A 3-3 draw with 5th-placed Bologna showcased our newly regained attacking prowess
- Lazio fell victim to a convincing 2-0 victory that could have been even more emphatic
While European qualification remains a challenge, the team is now playing attractive, effective football. The final stretch of the season promises to be intriguing, with Bergamo’s faithful hoping for a strong finish.
May – a total disaster!
With the season’s end in sight, I decided to press on through the final four matches, despite facing a daunting lineup of opponents: 4th-placed Torino, newly-crowned champions Inter, 5th-placed Juventus (our Super Coppa final conquerors), and 7th-placed AC Milan.
The results were very disappointing and the bridge in quality REALLY showed. While we managed to score 6 goals across these fixtures, we conceded 12, resulting in four straight losses against Serie A’s top teams. Not to make excuses but goalkeeper Ivan Pandur missed the final 3 games, as did new Right Wingback Costinha and midfielders Michele Besaggio and Giacomo Olzer.
The final league table paints a stark picture, with our team finishing a shocking 19 points adrift of European qualification.
This raises questions: Does it accurately reflect our performance throughout the season? While we struggled with inconsistency and the demands of competing across multiple competitions, it’s hard to associate this with a team that finished in 3rd place just last season.
However, there’s a silver lining. The expected goals (xG) table suggests we were unfortunate not to finish 7th – a position that, given the circumstances, would have been a satisfactory outcome. The poetic justice of this isn’t wasted on me, however, as last season the xG table suggests we should’ve finished 9th, not 3rd… so maybe this is our level.
Still, this discrepancy between our actual finish and the xG prediction offers some hope for the future, indicating that our on-field performance may have been better than the final standings suggest.
Clearly the issue is at our defensive end where was conceded a league leading 15 more goals than expected. This looks even worse when comparing against last season final table, where we scored 66, two more than this season, but conceded only 51 vs this seasons 64.
An inquest clearly needs to take place.
With the Board and Supporters unhappy that I failed my objectives or a top half finish, I’m genuinely worried for my job. Hopefully last season’s heroics, couple with the money generated through the semi-successful Champions League campaign will stand me in good stead.
The Inquest
In search of answers for our poor defensive performance, I turned to the data. While goalkeepers are often the easy fall-guy for a team’s woes, I wanted to rule out simple misfortune. What I discovered was far more revealing:
A stark contrast emerged in our “mistakes leading to goals” statistics:
- Last season: 4
- This season: 16
This somewhat shocking leap of 12 additional errors painted a clear picture of our defensive woes. Here’s the breakdown of the culprits:
- Ivan Pandur (GK) – 5
- Niels Nkounkou (LB) – 2
- Giovanni Fabbian (CM) – 2
- Donny Van de Beek (CM) – 2
- Efe Sarinkaya (CB) – 1
- Andres Ferro (CB) – 1
- Costinha (RB) – 1
- Tomas Handel (CM) – 1
- Marco Silvestri (GK) – 1
The goalkeeper position indeed emerged as a significant concern. Further analysis of the advanced keeper stats revealed a subpar 68% save percentage and an alarming xGC underperformance of 11.60.
Brescia is in dire need of a new shot-stopper. Pandur, a £6.5m acquisition from Fortuna Sittard, needs to be moved on, and hopefully making a small return on our investment.
However, this is just the beginning. In order to (re)take Brescia Calcio to new heights, a comprehensive review of the entire squad is necessary. The xG tables suggest we should have finished 9th last season and 7th this campaign – and being realistic, this should be used as THE foundation to build upon.
It’s time to shed any lingering “small club” mentality and make tough decisions. Every player’s contribution and potential will be scrutinised as we plan a our ascent to back to European football.
I won’t bore you with the details of this analysis, so here’s a table showing the players I intend on keeping and who needs to be shown the door as part of our rebuild. An ACTUAL rebuild… !!
Those who can stay:
Happily, after reviewing stats and considering wage commitments, there’s a good core of players who I’m willing to keep around. All the below should be able to contribute next season and beyond. There is one key name missing from the list though…
Those who can leave:
Amongst those who will be allowed to leave is Donny Van de Beek. As I mentioned earlier, I need to be ruthless and his 6 goal contributions aren’t good enough. Especially when you consider he’s meant to be the main creator in the team…. a team which has two strikers who bagged a combined 39 goals. He got just 3 of those and two of his goals came in the same game. Sorry Donny…
Houboulang Mendes is also on the list to be shown the door. He was constantly badgering me for a huge wage increase all season and demanded to be regarded as a star player. In the end i gave into his demands as I had a squad mutiny on my hands, but the intention was always to move him on when the season ended.
The loan spell of Mohamed-Ali Cho certainly won’t be turned into a permanent deal. Despite a good start in Brescia colours, he went on a looooong barren spell and when times got tough, he proved he wasn’t a player to be counted upon.
I also have a number of players out on loan, including attacking midfielder Davide Pereira Da Costa, who had a good spell in La Liga with Valencia… As there’s a £9m option to buy attached I won’t comment on any of them until they’ve either returned or have stayed with their new clubs.
Tactical Considerations
Unsurprisingly, I’ve come under some stick for my tactical stubbornness. I’ve stuck with the 5-3-2 for 77% of the season and for the most part it’s served me well.
I have to have a period of self-reflection and carefully consider my tactical approach for next season, as I fear a slow start could see the sack dangling over me like the Sword of Damocles.
I’ve always had the 5-2-2-1 to fall back on to either see out a game or give us more control over games, but even that stopped working in the second half of the season. The pre-season (if I make it that far) will be vital.
Conclusion
It’s a key period in my management of Brescia Calcio. With a number of players to move on and interest from other, bigger clubs for many of those I’ve chosen to keep it could be a completely new-look team come the opening day of the new season.
Mr Poborsky has been kind enough to give me £16.5m to spend on new players and from there’s a potential £30-40m to add to that from the players I deem surplus to requirements.
The objectives given to me were that the club expects to finished top half.
Thats the minimum expectations for myself, however. If I fail to achieve this I’ll resign.
There is one player whose signature I secured before the season ended though as he was on my shortlist and more teams were sniffing around…
So, ahead of an exciting pre-season I’ll leave you with this.
Great to have you back! Roll on season 5 – excited to see some newgens !