Football Italia: Season 4 – Continued presence at the top

Season 4: Continued presence at the top

Nearing the halfway mark of the 2027/28 Serie BKT season and we’ve continued to upset the pundits who predicted a struggle this season for us, as we’ve adapted to life in the second tier very well. Twenty years ago, we had just been relegated to Serie B, coming dead last in Serie A the season before but that shall not be remembered fondly as, despite forty-nine points being enough for fourteenth place, it also was the season that the club went bankrupt and dropped back down to Serie D.

Obviously, within FMs mechanics, that cannot happen to us, but – honestly – I am keeping a very tight on eye on the finances, slowly improving contracts for my key players but still unwilling to splash €8k a week on free transfers, who have been out of favour for years prior to my interest.

The first five games yielded only a solitary victory as we slipped down to ninth in the early season table, but, with the return Matteo Esposito, I felt that we were much sharper defensively, stopping top-scorers Pisa from mustering any more than just two shots on target, worth 0.14xG. Our total of 2.43xG is a recurring feature of this section of games – failing to find the net and leaving us to be considered, by xPts, as the top team in the league. Esposito leads the league with a 91% save percentage, outperforming his xSave % by 6%, a sign that, whilst I’m trying to build a solid defence, it’s also great having a top keeper back behind them.

Gubbio were no match for our attacking prowess as they mustered just shot, compared to our eighteen. 4.07xG created – 0.23 xG/Shot is, probably, a record for me and a real indication of the incisive, lethal attacking power than we have. Owusu and Masudi – his first for the club – saw off a much more competitive Juve Stabia than I expected, considering that they were the weakest of the promoted sides and now sit bottom of Serie BKT. Relegated Sudtirol were outplayed as we only scored once from our 1.76xG before we ran riot against Cesena, dominating late in the game with some clever substitutions. Venezia are having a poor season but we didn’t have quite enough to overpower them, despite dominating the match.

Two of the top eight to come in the next five, which, realistically, isn’t too bad.

I’m still waiting for the drop in form and the steady move back down the table but, realistically, I think we’re among the top seven or eight teams in the league now based on how we play to our strengths and how we can manipulate the opposition. Far from the best team, attribute wise, but the whole is significantly greater than the sum of its parts here.

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I found it really interesting to go back and fill this table in, considering that I’d last done it when we were in Serie C. Whilst we’ve risen to the top of many rankings, I saw that things like headers won dropped sharply, as did crosses completed and the amount of goals. Overall, this league feels better quality and, therefore, there is less extremes within it. That being said – our goal scoring form is pretty extreme as we lead the non-Pen xG, shots, shots on target and chances, just missing that bit of the luck to get the ball into the net, and – annoyingly – a couple of penalty misses. Despite being a team that presses intently in some places, our job – as seen by the possession stats – is to get the ball, advance it through dribbles and progressive passes and then shoot. We’re good at keeping the ball – mainly in our defensive third – but don’t bother with passing it into the net! I know that the calculation for OPPDA is not quite as it is in real life, but, even with taking that into account, we’re low here, despite having a high line, a high block and pressing more; I feel that this is due to our vastness of ‘support’ duties and keeping the entire team risk factor to as closely-knit as possible.

In terms of player stats, wanted to go back and look at how we’ve compared to the averages that I created at the start of this season. On the image below, the ticks and crosses indicate whether a player is performing within 20% of the average of that area of the pitch last season. To dig a little deeper, I can then compare that with those who have upped their game and are performing at 120% of last season’s average, in a higher division. The real positives are that I’ve reached a resolution of the heading issue within the centre backs as new signings Masudi and Capradossi seem to have filled that, we now have even higher quality output from left wing back Tripaldelli, then Bellino and Lucenti have upped their xG totals despite scoring heavily last season and we have three high scoring forwards: Braschi, Owusu and Merola.

I’ve tried to cut the metrics down to just three for each role. Despite the in-game definition of roles, I don’t specifically mean that – more rounded: defenders to defend, wing backs to keep width, midfielders to occupy the middle and forwards to create and score. By getting a more in depth understanding of each metric and how I will then see stipulations between the likes of Bellino – a volante – and Ruggeri – a more traditional holding midfielder – I can start to create really strong recruitment foci and performance analysis work. Essentially – I’ve had a long think about the question – what do I want each area of the pitch to do?

Defenders – defend the box, win the ball back cleverly and progress the ball forwards:

I am delighted that we’re still performing strongly across these three areas. My only question here was about Marchetti and why he’s less able to progress the ball. A look at his  form tells me that he’s seeing loads of the ball but is just not moving it forward. I reminded myself of what exactly constitutes a progressive pass, although I am unsure of whether this is replicated within the game or not.

  Quote

• The distance of the pass is at least 30 metres if it starts and ends in the one’s own half.
• The distance of the pass is at least 15 metres if the pass begins in the team’s half but ends in the opposition’s half.
• The distance of the pass is at least 10 metres if the pass starts and ends in the opposition’s half.

A two-game sample proves that, as he’s the deepest defender and – despite not playing out of defence – he has at least four players in pretty close proximity to him. Looking at this great X post, I can see that in the progressive pass clusters, his area doesn’t favour creativity, but, honestly, that’s not why he is there. He currently plays as a CB(d) in between two WCB(d) but could easily move to BPD(d) role if I want to explore some more creativity within his passing ranges or, probably easier, just allow him to be as he is and possibly look to develop this role into a really physically demanding battle winner, who can step up, win the ball and lay it off – focusing on the other two metrics instead.

Wing backs – progressing the ball either through carries or passes and create for others:

Outstanding work here as Tripaldelli has accrued ten assists already, just one shy of his total from last season. Floriani Mussolini has four, at more than one in four games, but, as a more traditional full back or wide centre back, does lack a little of the progress. Whilst there is a huge need for strength in depth here, given that the backups are just seventeen year old kids, it’s great to see that they’re doing what I want of them!

Central midfielders – create chances for others, progress the ball and keep possession of the ball:

The additional of Valerio Verre has been wonderful, and, aside from assisting during Bellino’s injury spell, has brought some more playmaking ability with it – as I’ve three players who are playing well, progressing the ball and creating chances. Carboni has been a little off the pace since his signing and is used in a similar role – DLP(s) – to Lucenti but hasn’t reached the same heights as my academy graduate. He is, however, the most progressive and best interceptor of them all – meaning that, with Ruggeri, there could be a creation of another style of double pivot: really important in my reactive tactical thoughts.

Forwards – shoot accurately, score goals and, if not possible, provide for others:

Clemenza has found the second step up in as many seasons pretty tough – just two contributions (0G 2A) compared to twenty last year. His xG/shot of 0.14 isn’t hugely off but a conversion rate of just 10% and an overall reduction in shots may mean I look to recruit at a slightly quicker pace than I had imagined for the thirty year old, probably mirroring the same kind of player as Merola – who, despite having another season of not wanting to assist others (one this season, two last) has already reached his league tally of twelve, from twelve less games, too. There’s a further conversation to be had about the development – or lack of – of Owusu and how he may be the player to balanced the books before I start my recruitment but, statistically, he’s done pretty well around a few niggling injuries this season.

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Long story short – we’re not fluking this! Some depth in the wing back roles, another creative dribbly 10 and, if required, a striker to replace Owusu is our sensible transfer window!

Forza Biancoscudati!