Football Italia: Season 2 – Strong Start

Season 2: Strong start

Eight games in feels like a nice point to stop, step back and take note of where we are currently. Things are moving nicely, but there is always scope to develop!

I’m watching the games on comprehensive highlights with the first ten minutes on ‘full match’ in order to get the best idea of the game plan of my opponents, plus spending time working through key players and matchups before the game starts – meaning that these eight games have, probably, lasted the same kind of time as – at least – a half season in normal time! That being said, it’s been worth the hassle as our league position sees us significantly above the media prediction of fourteenth and my own prediction of mid-table. We’ll unlikely threaten much higher as the season pans out but this already feels like a huge step forward.

Against Monopoli, my plan was to strangle their offensive build up down their right hand side, using forward Owusu as a press against their right centre back. A fluke goal – a deflected  shot that looped over Pinsoglio’s head – was their own attempt of the whole game and contributed all of their 0.25xG, compared to our free flowing attacking and total of 1.68xG. A game against a side who finished below us last season and, therefore, a game I’d like to have won, but a strong start, nevertheless. Pinsoglio finally had a shot to save as Potenza mustered just one shot on target and only 0.45xG from their nine attempts in total. We were slightly off with our shooting – 0.78xG from eleven attempts but Firenze scored for the second game running. My pressing structure here was really interesting: using the two AM(s) to tight mark their two full backs, leaving Owusu as the man to press their DM and completely stepping off their back two, who lack the passing range to search anyone else out. They amassed over 60% of the ball but so much of it was just back and forth between the centre backs, unable to penetrate centrally with our four man central overload and unable to pick out long runners or wide men.

Turris game to town next and we battered them! 2.50xG – including a penalty – scored this time by Caso was way ahead of their 0.32xG from five attempts. I’ve made a point of rotating my penalty takers between anyone who needs a goal but also has a good mental state to be confident enough to take one. Here, Caso was pretty instrumental in chance creation for the first half so was rewarded with it and, belying his age, stepped up with confidence. MacAnthony nodded in a corner before Leone finished with a lovely low drive to seal an emphatic win.

Our unbeaten streak was ended by a strong Crotone side who took their chances as the game ended 0.57xG – 0.57xG. They domination possession, with us, again, standing off and trying to limit their progressive passing options, forcing their defenders into keeping the ball but we were slightly less successful that previously, allowing a season-high 108 passes into the final third. We raced into a three nil lead against Juve Stabia, after two goals from my two academy projects, Lucenti and Owusu but were pegged back by a rejuvenated side in the second half. Their goal in the 81st minute left us going into the last ten with a bit of jeopardy, but we held firm, showing the fight and drive that I want us to have in order to succeed.

We went to bottom club Sorrento and had over three hundred percent more xG across the ninety – 1.29 to their 0.4 – but, ultimately, didn’t find the net. Their narrow, compact, defensive style was hard to break down and made even harder by my two wing backs – Giovagnoli and Lia – struggling to impact the game. A return to winning ways was made in Sardinia against Torres, thanks to – this time – a Lucenti penalty. He’d played his heart out for the first thirty and had hit the bar with a rasping long shot. His focused and determined mindset left me with little concern about selecting him as the taker.

Another possession hungry side, Foggia, came to town next and we, honestly, deserved a lot of credit for our showing. Pushing all their play to the left to take into account a huge amount of right footed players, who’d then be shown inside to avoid crossing opportunities for their big forwards meant that we had a strong gameplan that I didn’t deviate from even after going in one down and being on the back foot for most of the first half. Moving the AM(s) to the SS(a) meant that Firenze had loads more freedom to drive at the defence and our rewards came, following some extended pressure, when he scored with ten to go. This time, though, I didn’t sit back and invite pressure, as I did against Juve Stabia, instead, we pushed on and could’ve had a winner.

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I’ve delved into some team stats to see how we’ve fared:

Despite the strong bond formed between my back three, I have significant concerns over the heading outputs of Berto and Ceresoli and I think teams are looking to target us, given our poor headers won ratio. At the other end, my wingback pairing are not completing crosses because we’re now not a team set up to win them. It’s not, necessarily, an area I class as a non-negotiable being as I can try my hardest to funnel players inside and stop crosses where possible, but it’s certainly an area we’re currently living dangerously in, particularly as we’ve only conceded once from a set piece this season so far. Elsewhere defensively, though, we’re superb. The best defence in terms of xGA and facing the least amount of shots and those on target. Our OPPDA and possession won stats, despite us playing quite an intensive pressing game, are hugely skewed by my creation of triggers rather than just all out pressing of their defenders.

I’ve got some concerns around the performances of my strikers: Owusu and Bonfiglio. In a shape that requires quick, chaotic transitions and space creation, they do stretch games and pull defences out of shape but they’re both getting pretty high quality chances – 0.14xG/shot is above the league average of 0.11xG/shot – but are just not putting them away, nor are they instead choosing to play someone else in. I think a tactical shift to a 2-1 shape with an AM(s)/SS(a) combo behind some kind of forward might work best here. Neither of my strikers are good enough for true supporting duties – not aerial enough for a TF(s), not creative enough for a F9(s) or DLF(s) so, realistically, I’m left with either a PF(s) or continuing to use them as an AF(a) but trying to get more men into the box and around them. I think a SS(a), along with a slight tweak to the freedom of the left sided WB(s) might help here. We’re taking shots and hitting the target, but just not quite putting them away like we should be – yet!

My expectation is that we begin to fade towards the middle of the tabel, given the position of a lot of these stats, as the season continues. Despite a lot of our playings sitting in the lower percentiles in terms of age when compared to those in Serie C with at least one minute this season, there are a high number who have appeared in a high percentile of minutes, suggesting that I am really reliant on a core of key players. Our depth below the starting XI is pretty weak and I pretty much already do utilise any promising youngsters for first team minutes, suggesting that, should an injury crisis occur, I fully expect my results to drop off.

In order to really strategise my training intensity, morale management and squad rotation, I’ve created a chart to show the league position from last season at this level in order to try and ascertain where the difficulty lies and where there is potential to pick up points. October, whilst I am only just past the Foggia game, is busy as it also includes a cup tie but, post Benevento and recently relegated, high-flying Pescara, I’m playing teams who finished mid table last year – Guigliano are now ninth, Picerno are now tenth and Latina and now 13th as well as an Olbia side who’ve just been promoted here and lie 12th. Therefore, my work on praising training and conduct will happen at the start of the month, in order to maintain morale and build relationships, whilst my first team squad will have to get through the four games – up to Pescara, including a cup tie against Ternana – in twelve days, before I consider more squad rotation. I’ll, therefore, try to utilise individual player rest across this point, maybe giving each player two of the twelve off around match build up and recovery days. Not an exact science here but something that may be of use.

December, on the other hand, might be a great month to try and put some players in the shop window. Three easier fixtures against three of the current bottom seven means that I could include some players who I want to move on, hoping that decent showing and minutes under their belts help attract interest. It’s also the most likely time to look at experimentation with my attacking shapes but, with only three games and a tough January to come, it’ll also be used to play some friendlies to ensure match fitness and game confidence is high.

I’ve never considered making this until now but feels like a tool I always needed in terms of setting out the plans across the season!

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Forza biancoscudati!